2022年5月美联储FOMC议息会议笔记：出炉

mmittee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong． In support of these goals， the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate． In addition， the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1， as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve‘s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement．

委员才会寻求在曾一度内付诸最小（须要）社会举办活动岗位和2%的利率目的。随着国家政府主张的须要放宽，委员才会预估财政赤字将回到2%的目的，劳力零售商将始终保持惊人。为了背书这些目的，委员才会立即将澳大利亚联邦政府基金会汇率的目的区间提升到0.75%-1%（加息50bps），并预估汇率目的区间的不间断提升将是须要的。此外，委员才会立即在6年末1日开始减低其所有者的金融的机构、的机构债务以及MBS，正如与本道歉信发函同时公布的《缩小监管的机构存款负债发挥有的原计划》中所所述。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy， the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook． The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals． The Committee‘s assessments will take into account a wide range of information， including readings on public health， labor market conditions， inflation pressures and inflation expectations， and financial and international developments．

在分析报告国家政府的须要主张时，委员才会将之前风险评估收到的新进资讯对社会发展发展前景的受到影响。如果显露现可能阻碍委员才会目的付诸的安全性，委员才会将准备而政府相应国家政府的主张。委员才会的分析报告将选择到普遍的资讯，包括对公共卫生、劳力零售商状况、财政赤字震撼和财政赤字短期内以及金融和世界性发展的解读。

缩表具体内容《缩小监管的机构存款负债发挥有的原计划》

根据2022年1年末公布的《缩小监管的机构存款负债发挥有的原则》，委员才会所有参与者都同意所列大大的减低监管的机构证券市场所有者存量的原计划。

委员才会正要在之前内以可预测的方式减低监管的机构的证券市场所有者存量，主要是通过相应从系统公开零售商账户（SOMA）中所所有者的证券市场额度偿付后的再之前融资利息。自6年末1日起，从SOMA中所所有者的证券市场的额度偿付将在多达每年末少于（caps）的先决条件下进行再之前融资。

对于金融的机构，在此之前的少于将被游戏内为每年末300亿美元，三个年末后将增高到每年末600亿美元。在此年末度少于下，金融的机构所有者存量的增高将涵盖选票息美债，如果当年末终止的选票息债大于所游戏内的年末度少于，则涵盖短期美债。

对于的机构债务和MBS，在此之前的少于将游戏内为每年末175亿美元，三个年末后将增高到每年末350亿美元。

随着时间段的推移，委员才会正要将证券市场所有者存量始终保持在其充裕的利息税制中所高效并有效地可执行国家政府所需的数额。

为了确保长时间过渡，委员才会正要在利息准确度略高于其判断的与贫乏利息相一致的准确度时，延缓并停止存款负债发挥有的增高。

一旦存款负债表停止缩表，利息可能才会之前增高之前，凸显显露其他监管的机构负债项目的不间断增长，直到委员才会判断其利息所处贫乏的准确度。

此后，委员才会将根据无需来管理者证券市场所有者存量，以在之前内始终保持贫乏的利息。

委员才会随时本来根据社会发展和金融的发展情况相应其缩小存款负债发挥有的方法的任何具体内容。

招待才会要能

#1 有关利率弊端，布朗两次说明“much too high”，道歉信中所新显露现的“attentive”亦发表意见了利率的所致，安全性存款在布朗蹦显露“much too high”以后吓坏不驭，应声下行线。

The labor market is extremely tight， and inflation is much too high．

Inflation is much too high， and we understand the hardship it is causing．

劳力零售商极其不安，财政赤字率极低了。

财政赤字率极低了，我们理解它所造成的艰难。

#2 有关75bp加息，布朗避免了零售商的顾虑，确切表示委员才会从未选择75bp大大的度的加息，这也是招待才会对安全性存款极其重要的期待鼓舞可能。零售商借由75bp的陈述而舞动起了鸽派大旗。

There is a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings．

75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering．

委员才会大多相信在每一次的几次才大会上应该加息50个1]。

75个1]的加息不是委员才会早就积极选择的弊端。

#3 有关澳大利亚社会发展的供需弊端，布朗的表述一以贯之，确切表态联储根本无法受到影响储藏端，联储将俄乌惨案和中所国的风控视为自己根本无法管控的外部环境因素，而因此只能偏重“需求量”。

Our tools don‘t work on supply shocks， our tools work on demand……there is a job to do on demand．

我们的机器从未能对策补充震撼，我们的机器是针对社会发展需求量的．．．．．．，针对需求量我们有很多社会举办活动要花钱。

#4 联储是怎样选择目前为止的供需平衡弊端的？布朗给显露了一个确切的加权和理论开放性，即行政官员遗缺率及贝弗里奇椭圆。布朗相信，期望社会举办活动岗位零售商的参与率才会逐步增强，但是社会举办活动岗位人数不间断增长才会减缓，进而导致就业率显露现小幅顶端。新进的劳力补充以及减缓的社会发展（雇员需求量）将逐步增高行政官员遗缺率，进而增高加班费和利率震撼，使得社会发展原先回到一个位能，达到入轨。

I would say that I expect and committee members generally expect that we will get additional participation， so people will be coming back into the labor force， we have seen that particularly among prime age people， and that will of course tend to hold the unemployment rate up a little bit． I would expect though that job creation will slow， job creation has been at more than a half million per month in recent months， very very strong， particularly for this stage of the economy． And so we think with fiscal policy less supportive， monetary policy less supportive we think job creation will slow as well．

我只想说的是，我短期内，委员才会的领导者们也大多短期内，劳动力参与率才会增强，所以人们将回到劳力队员中所，我们已经只想到，比如说是在壮龄人中所，这当然才会使就业率不间断上升一点。但我预估，社会举办活动岗位岗位（非农）的创造将减缓，近几个年末来，非农每年末多达50万，极其极其惊人，比如说是对于社会发展的这个阶段而言。因此，我们相信随着政策的背书大大的度弱化，国家政府的背书大大的度弱化，我们相信社会举办活动岗位创造也才会减缓。

……more people coming back in， we like to think that supply and demand will come back into balance， and that therefore， wage inflation will moderate to still high levels of wage increases， but ones that are more consistent with 2 percent inflation．

．．．．．．很多人回归了社会举办活动岗位岗位，我们相信储藏和需求量将恢复平衡，因此，退休金利率将升温至即使如此比起极差的不间断增长准确度，但与2%的利率率极为一致。

there is a path by which we would be able to have demand moderate in the labor market， and have therefore vacancies come down without unemployment going up because vacancies are at such a extraordinarily high level， they are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed person， 11 and a half million vacancies， six million unemployed people．

有一条道路，我们将能平抑劳力零售商的需求量使之极为偏爱，并推低行政官员遗缺率而不导致就业率的不间断上升，因为行政官员遗缺所处极其高的准确度，每一个失业对应1.9个行政官员遗缺，有1150万的行政官员遗缺，600万的失业。

In principle， it seems as though by moderating demand， we could see vacancies come down， and as a result， they could come down fairly significantly， and I think put supply and demand closer together than they are at least， and that would give us a chance to have lower， to get inflation， wages down， and get inflation down， without having to slow the economy and have a recession， and have unemployment rise materially． There is a path to that．

原则上，无论如何通过升温需求量，我们可以只想到行政官员遗缺率的增高……大大的增高，我相信倘若我们使储藏和需求量至少比现在不够比起，这将使我们有机才会增高……使财政赤字，退休金增高，而不导致社会发展的减缓，显露现衰败，使就业率大大的不间断上升。是有这么一条路可走的。

One is， households and businesses are in strong financial shape， you are looking at excess savings on balance sheets， excess in the sense that they are substantially larger than the prior trend， businesses are in good financial shape． The labor market is very very strong， and so it doesn‘t seem to be anywhere close to a downturn．

无需指显露的是，家庭主妇和行业的财务很差，我们能只想到的是所有者部门存款负债表上的其所消费，其所的原意是它们比那时候的趋势要少比，行业的财务很差。劳力零售商极其极其惊人，因此，我们样子距离社会发展下行线还很少。

#5 对于大萧条，布朗目前为止相信几率很低。

And the labor market， if you look at the labor market for people who are out of work and looking， there are lots of job opportunities， for wages are moving up， and at rates that haven‘t been seen in a long time． It is a good time to be a worker looking to either change jobs or get a wage increase in your current job． It’s a strong economy． Nothing about it suggests that it‘s close to or vulnerable to a recession．

As I said， I think we have a good chance to restore price stability without a recession， without a severe downturn and without materially higher unemployment．

看看劳力零售商，如果你看一下就业率和在找社会举办活动的人，有很多社会举办活动机才会，因为退休金早就不间断上升，而且是在很长之前内没有人只想到的不间断上升速度。对于劳工而言现在是一个很差的光景，换社会举办活动分红都是如此。社会发展很强，没有人任何迹象得出结论它比起衰败。

正如我所说的，我相信我们有一个很差的机才会来恢复市价稳定，而不激怒大萧条，不才会显露现严重的社会发展下行线，也不才会显露现实质性的高就业率。

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